I’ve been rewatching The West Wing (and dreaming of politicians we can all admire), while also remarking on the pure fantasy of it all. We hear opinion polls all the time: the party in power is supported or opposed, the person in office has favorables and unfavorables, and so forth. But the point of it all—regardless of the polls, regardless of the people—is that the American electorate, by and large, is never happy with the party in the White House.

Specifically, we have buyer’s remorse, and almost always have. For evidence, I point to the number of times we’ve elected a new president who is a member of the same party as the outgoing president. That number is small.

From 1800 to 1828, we had four straight presidents who were members of the Democrat-Republican party, but there really wasn’t much of an opposition party at that time. Indeed, the election of 1820 had only one candidate: sitting president James Monroe was re-elected with more than 78% of the popular vote and 231 of the 232 electoral votes cast (the Federalist party, with no named candidate, got 19% of the popular vote). Thomas Jefferson was elected in 1800 and 1804, James Madison in 1808 and 1812, Monroe in 1816 and 1820, and John Quincy Adams in 1824.

In the election of 1836, Democrat Andrew Jackson was retiring after two terms, and his second vice president, his chosen successor, Martin Van Buren, won the election, holding the White House for the Democrats.

The next time that happened was in 1856, when Democrat Franklin Pierce lost his bid to be nominated for a second term, but the Democrat who won the nomination, James Buchanan, won the presidency as well.

The election of 1876 was very close. As Republican Ulysses Grant was retiring after two terms, Republican Rutherford B. Hayes was in a very close race with Democrat Samuel J. Tilden. Indeed, Tilden won the popular vote, but the Electoral Commission awarded enough of the disputed electoral votes to give Hayes the electoral college, 185 to 184. In 1880, Hayes kept his pledge and did not run for a second term. Instead, Republican James A. Garfield won the election to succeed him (and was assassinated six months into his term of office).

Republican William McKinley was elected in 1896. His first vice president, Garrett Hobart, died in 1899, and in the election of 1900, McKinley was re-elected with vice president Theodore Roosevelt. McKinley was assassinated in late 1901, and Roosevelt succeeded. Roosevelt then won his own term as president in 1904. In 1908, Roosevelt stepped aside, and his chosen successor, Republican William Howard Taft was elected. In 1912, Roosevelt would split from Taft, run against him, and give the election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

In 1920, Republican Warren Harding was elected. He died in 1923, elevating Vice President Calvin Coolidge to the presidency. Coolidge won his own term in 1924, and chose not to run for another term in 1928, so Republican Herbert Hoover was elected to succeed him.

In 1988, after two terms of wide support, Ronald Reagan was forced to retire from the presidency under the terms of the 22nd Amendment, and his vice president, George H.W. Bush, was elected to succeed him.

To sum up, we’ve chosen a person of the same political party to succeed a departing president only in 1808, 1816, 1824, 1836, 1876, 1880, 1908, 1928, and 1988. Nine times. That’s it. (That is also ignoring Vice Presidents John Tyler and Chester Arthur [who weren’t elected to their own terms] and Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson [who were], who first succeeded to the office upon the deaths of their predecessors).

We chose to change parties in the elections of 1800, 1828, 1840, 1844, 1848, 1852, 1860, 1868 (Abraham Lincoln’s second vice president, Andrew Johnson, was not a member of his Republican party), 1884, 1888, 1892, 1896, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1952, 1960, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016, 2020, and 2024.

I’m not predicting anything for 2028; you can draw your own conclusions.…