Donald Trump Sure Can’t Pick ’em

Thinking about Donald Trump’s choices of appointees for his upcoming administration.

His supposed business acumen apparently doesn’t extend into the realm of choosing the right people to do the jobs. I mean, look at all the people he’s hired and then fired. Uppermost in my mind at the moment is Christopher Wray, who he hired as Director of the FBI. Wray is resigning coincident with the end of Joe Biden’s term because Trump has made it quite clear that if he stays, Trump will fire him—even though the job has a ten-year term to keep it out of the political realm (see former director James Comey’s commentary in this article). And Trump keeps bad-mouthing Jerome Powell, who he appointed chair of the Federal Reserve in 2018, which similarly is supposed to be above politics.

Fair warning: I initially thought Trump had fired far more Cabinet secretaries than he has. But these numbers don’t take into account other appointees, aides, and advisors, such as White House Communications Director, Press Secretary, lawyers, and so on.

During the first Trump administration, he fired four Cabinet secretaries (three others resigned under suspicion of ethics violations or misuse of funds) and two chiefs of staff. In fact, he had 24 Secretaries and five Acting Secretaries lead the 15 Cabinet departments.

By way of comparison, only two of Biden’s Cabinet secretaries left office in the middle of the term (one to become Executive Director of the National Hockey League Players’ Association, the other to leave public life).

So Trump does have a track record for picking people who won’t stick around too long (either by their choice or his).

For a historical perspective, when I wrote The Presidential Book of Lists, I also looked at presidential cabinets. At that time, Theodore Roosevelt topped the list for the president who had the greatest number of people serve in one cabinet post: he had six Secretaries of the Navy during his seven and a half years in office. Three others (and TR himself) had five people serve in one post: Andrew Jackson (Secretary of the Treasury), John Tyler (Secretary of the Navy), Ulysses Grant (Secretary of War and Attorney General), and Theodore Roosevelt (Postmaster General). Trump joined the list with five Attorneys General (two confirmed, and three acting). He and Tyler are the only ones to do it in single four-year terms.

I also looked at the presidents who had the greatest number of people serve in their cabinets. That list naturally skewed toward the more recent Presidents because the size of the Cabinet has changed over time, from the four officers who served Washington (Secretaries of State, Treasury, War, and Attorney General) to the 15 who currently serve. Harry S Truman topped the list with 34 Cabinet officers, an average of 3.4 per department. Ronald Reagan was right behind him, with 33 Cabinet officers (2.5 per department; only one of his Secretaries served the full eight-year term). Tied for third were Richard Nixon (31 Cabinet officers, 2.6 per department) and George W. Bush (31 Cabinet officers, 2.2 per department—the Department of Homeland Security was created during his term). Tied for fifth place were Theodore Roosevelt (29 Cabinet officers, 3.2 per department) and Bill Clinton (29 Cabinet officers, 2.1 per department—four of Clinton’s Cabinet officers served out his entire eight-year term). Now we can add Donald Trump’s first term to that tie.

To take account of the growing number of Cabinet departments, I also calculated the number of officers per Cabinet department (and then split the list between one-term and two-term presidents). Topping the list of those serving two terms was Ulysses Grant (3.6 officers per department—25 Secretaries, 7 departments). Tied for second were James Madison (3.2—16 Secretaries, five departments), Andrew Jackson (19 Secretaries, six departments), Theodore Roosevelt (29 Secretaries, nine departments), and Harry Truman (34 Secretaries, 10 departments). Topping the list of one-termers was John Tyler (3.5 officers per department—21 Secretaries, six departments). Next was Chester Arthur (2.4—17 Secretaries, seven departments). Third was Gerald Ford (2.1—23 Secretaries, 11 departments). Fourth was James Buchanan (2.0—14 Secretaries, 7 departments). And then Andrew Johnson (1.86—13 Secretaries, 7 departments). Donald Trump joined the list slightly ahead of Johnson (1.93 officers per department—29 Secretaries, 15 departments).

Only four Presidents served their terms without replacing any Cabinet officers: William Henry Harrison (admittedly, he died one month after being inaugurated), Zachary Taylor (died sixteen months into his term), Franklin Pierce (the only President to have served a full term with his original Cabinet), and James Garfield (died six months into his term).

[Edited several hours after posting to add:] A friend asked: How did you count those Secretaries who resigned in the wake of the events of January 6, 2021.

I’m embarrassed to say I didn’t. Skipped right over them. However, I did count Attorney General William Barr’s resignation on December 23.

Other than Barr:
* Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao resigned January 11, 2021.
* Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos resigned January 8, 2021.
* Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf resigned January 11, 2021. In his resignation letter, he cited “recent events, including the ongoing and meritless court rulings regarding the validity of my authority as Acting Secretary.” Two days after he resigned, Wolf said that Trump was partly responsible for the storming of the Capitol.

The reason I left them out of my analysis is that their resignations did not result in new Secretaries or even acting Secretaries. Their workloads were picked up by the deputies, who were never appointed to the Secretary’s position.

Thanks for catching that oversight.

I Voted for Harris

On Sunday, I voted (early) in this year’s elections. I voted for Kamala Harris for president, and I think you should, too.

Why did I vote for her? Let me tell you.

I voted for her not for any specific policy promise or rhetorical flourish. I voted for her because I think that when she is sitting at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, and an issue is brought before her that she needs to decide, her first thought is going to be “what is the best decision for the country?” If Donald Trump is sitting at that desk, however, I think his first thought will be “what is the best decision for me and my friends?” That difference is the only reason I needed to make my decision. But I’ll go a little further for the rest of you.

I think Kamala Harris will surround herself with appointees, advisors, and assistants who will also be thinking “what is best for the country?” I think she will seek out the smartest, most capable people possible. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has already told us who he’ll be looking to appoint, and who he won’t, and I don’t think they’ll be working for our best interests. I don’t trust the cadre around him, and I don’t trust his judgment in finding more appointees or advisors.

You can look at any of the campaign nonsense you want—taxes and tariffs, deplorables and enemies, fascism and greatness—none of what they’re saying today will matter after the inauguration. The only thing that will matter is who is making the decisions, and what is uppermost in their minds when they make those decisions. That’s why I voted for Kamala Harris, and why I urge you to do the same.

A Vampire is Running for President: Thank God!

A press release from Fantastic Books:

It’s been a horrific election season. Supporters on both sides are quite certain the other candidate can’t be human. Maybe we’d be better off voting for an actual monster!

Should being outed as a real vampire disqualify one from running for the presidency of the United States? Michael A. Ventrella’s hilarious Bloodsuckers answers that question.

Disgraced journalist Steven Edwards considers the “Batties”—the loonies who believe that vampires are real and Norman Mark is one—just another crazy tin-foil-hat extremist group. Then someone shoots at Mark, changes into a bat, and flies away before Steve’s eyes, leaving him as the prime suspect. With the help of the Batties, Steve goes underground. The only way he can establish his innocence is by proving vampires exist—not an easy task while on the run from both the FBI and the bloodsuckers.

Fantastic Books is releasing a new edition of Bloodsuckers right now, timed to coincide with “the most consequential presidential election in American history.” But aren’t they all? We’ve been tuned in to news of this election non-stop for years; it’s time to take a break. Read Bloodsuckers, and put it all into perspective.

Bloodsuckers: A Vampire Runs for President
Michael A. Ventrella
$15.99, 250 pages, trade paperback (ebook $7.99)
publication date: October 29, 2024
ISBN: 978-1-5154-5828-9

Bloodsuckers—and all Fantastic Books books—are distributed via Ingram. Review copies are available upon request.

Can New York Vote Republican?

A friend asked me how many Republican presidents have carried the electoral votes of New York State. It’s a simple enough question. But I think it may be masking something else. My friend may be wondering if the present is monolithic: that the way things are is the way they have always been, and always will be.

New York is currently overwhelmingly Democratic—so much so that it’s nearly inconceivable that New York would vote Republican for president. In 2004, 58.37% of the vote in New York was for John Kerry, the Democrat (he earned 48.3% of the popular vote nationwide). In 2008, Barack Obama took 62.88% of New York (52.9% nationwide). In 2012, Obama got 63.35% of New York (51.1% nationwide). In 2016, Hilary Clinton took 59.01% of New York (48.2% nationwide). And in 2020, Joe Biden garnered 60.87% of New York (51.3% nationwide).

But reality is not quite so unchanging.

There have been 42 elections with a Republican candidate on the ballot for president (the first was John C. Fremont in 1856). In those elections, New York has voted for the Republican candidate 20 times, and 22 times for the Democrat. When New York votes Republican, that candidate has won 17 times (New York voted for unsuccessful Republicans Fremont in 1856, Hughes in 1916, and Dewey in 1948). When New York votes Democratic, that candidate has won 15 times (New York voted for unsuccessful Democrats Seymour in 1868, Tilden in 1876, Humphrey in 1968, Dukakis in 1988, Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Hilary Clinton in 2016).

So yes, in the current era, New York state voting Republican is highly unlikely. But such was not always the case. And it may not always be the case in the future. The key take-away from these numbers is: things change. The Republicans may be able to divorce themselves from the insanity of the Trumpian party, and once again field rational candidates for national office. The Democrats may become unhinged through their own acceptance of a radical fringe. The one thing we know for certain is that humans are very good at extrapolating trends, but absolutely terrible and foreseeing inflection points in those trends.

Announcing way too early?

I’ve been mulling the current presidential election season. Specifically, I’ve been wondering if Joe Biden might have more easily opted to be a one-term president if he hadn’t had to announce his attentions so far in advance of the election. After all, if he’d said—in April 2023—that he wasn’t running for another term, he would have been a lame duck for 21 months, nearly half of his term.

So I’ve dug out the data from the primary era of presidential campaigns, to see if my assumption was correct. Here’s what I found.

Lyndon Johnson was in the race ten months before election day. On March 12, 1968, he won 49 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, barely beating Eugene McCarthy’s 42 percent. Four days later, Robert F. Kennedy got into the race. Johnson announced his withdrawal from the race March 31, 1968, 219 days before the election of 1968.

Richard Nixon authorized the formation of his re-election campaign committee on January 7, 1972, 305 days before the election of 1972. He won the election in one of the greatest landslides in presidential history.

Gerald Ford launched his presidential campaign July 8, 1975, one year and 117 days before the election of 1976. He lost a surprisingly close race to Jimmy Carter.

Jimmy Carter launched his re-election bid on December 4, 1979, 336 days before the election of 1980. He lost handily to Ronald Reagan.

Ronald Reagan announced his re-election campaign on January 29, 1984, 282 days before the election of 1984. His margin of victory was almost as large as Nixon’s.

George H.W. Bush announced his re-election campaign on February 12, 1992, 265 days before the election of 1992. He lost a three-way race to Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton announced his re-election campaign on April 14, 1995, one year and 202 days before the election of 1996. He won in another three-way race, becoming the only president to win two terms without ever garnering a majority of the popular vote.

George W. Bush announced his re-election campaign on May 16, 2003, one year and 171 days before the election of 2004. He won in a less contentious election than his first.

Barack Obama announced his re-election campaign on April 4, 2011, one year and 213 days before the election of 2012. He won in a closer election than his first.

Donald Trump announced his re-election campaign on January 20, 2017—the day he was inaugurated—three years and 288 days before the election of 2020. He lost the election.

Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign on April 25, 2023, one year and 191 days before the election of 2024.

Conclusion: it wasn’t Donald Trump or the 24-hour-a-day give-us-an-election-so-we-don’t-have-to-report-actual-news news cycle that caused Joe Biden to have to announce so early. Rather, it was Bill Clinton who started this absurd trend, and Biden is just doing what his predecessors did. (I’m leaving out Ford because he was a special circumstance in so many ways.)

Also, how long before the election a president starts running for re-election doesn’t seem to have an effect on the outcome of the election.

PresidentRe-election AnnouncementDays Until Election
Richard NixonJanuary 7, 1972305
Gerald FordJuly 8, 1975482
Jimmy CarterDecember 4, 1979336
Ronald ReaganJanuary 29, 1984282
George H.W. BushFebruary 12, 1992265
Bill ClintonApril 14, 1995567
George W. BushMay 16, 2003536
Barack ObamaApril 4, 2011578
Donald TrumpJanuary 20, 20171,383
Joe BidenApril 25, 2023556

One caucus is enough, right?

We’ve spent nearly a year in this incredibly lengthened election season, started early because Donald Trump tried to forestall his criminal indictments. We still have more than nine months to go before election day. And all along, we’ve heard the politicians and pundits telling us the only thing that matters is the votes on November 5 (plus all the early voting and absentee ballots).

But now, as a dozen Republicans have already decided they have no chance, we’re hearing so many saying Nikki Haley, too, should quit, because she has no chance to beat Trump for the nomination.

Mind you, today is just the first primary (in New Hampshire), and the only voters who’ve already expressed their opinions were the 110,272 who participated in the Iowa caucuses. Those 110,272 represent just 0.07% of the 158 million who cast votes in 2020—that is, a rounding error. They don’t even represent a majority of Iowa voters (1,690,871 voted in 2020). Indeed, they’re only 14.6% of the registered Republicans in the state. We’ve spent a year waiting to see the outcome of the primaries, but just as they’re starting, we’re told the rest of them don’t matter, because one in fourteen Republicans in Iowa (56,243) expressed a preference for Trump.

Major news outlets stopped reporting election results while the polls were still open after 1980, when there was great consternation that doing so might have suppressed the vote in the western states. But now we’re told that we don’t even have to wait for the polls to open in the other 99+% of the country: the few Iowans who cared to join the caucuses are enough. No, just no. I say, let ’em run until the end.

Don’t pay any attention to logic

I find it ironic that Donald Trump keeps pushing for “complete and total presidential immunity” to block his forthcoming trials for orchestrating an attempted coup (see, for example, this article). Follow it through logically: if a president has complete and total immunity, wouldn’t President Biden ordered Trump’s immediate imprisonment, probably in a supermax prison or a deep hole in the ground? “For the national good,” of course. But even if he shouldn’t do it, well, complete and total presidential immunity.

In other presidential news, last night I spoke to Central Texas Mensa about the presidents. My talk, “Hail to the Chiefs! (and their Vice Presidents, and First Ladies…)” was very well received, and I was thrilled with the audience. I’m available to speak to your group, as well.

Mike Pence announces his campaign for high priest

I just listened to Mike Pence announce his campaign for pope… er, priest… um, religious leader. I mean, wow! From his point of view, every right listed in the Constitution is a “god-given right.”

It started with his wife’s introduction of him, noting that he is here because of his humility before god. And then he took the stage to introduce himself, telling us he is a Christian first, a conservative second, and a Republican third. Well, that’s very nice, but we don’t (or shouldn’t) elect religious leaders in this country.

It’s almost like he’s forgotten the last phrase of the Constitution’s Article VI: “no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.” While he wasn’t saying his Christianity is required to be president, he certainly made me—as someone who is not a Christian—feel like I won’t be welcome in his United States.

Mind you, none of this is a surprise; it’s nothing new from him. It’s just that a Christian President Pence would not be hidden by the masking effect that Vice President Pence had in Grifter-in-Chief Trump’s shadow.

Vice Presidents Getting Promoted

10tylerA friend texted me yesterday. She’s visiting Washington, and wrote “How many Vice Presidents have become President? A friend was wondering in the National Portrait Gallery, and I figured you’d know off-hand.” Well, I did know, but it turns out the answer has changed fairly recently, so I figured it’s time to share with a wider audience.

The most common method for Vice Presidents to reach the Presidency is through succession. Four succeeded upon the deaths of the Presidents they’d been elected with:

  1. John Tyler, when William Henry Harrison died a month into his term, in April 1841.
  2. Millard Fillmore, upon Zachary Taylor’s death in 1850.
  3. Andrew Johnson, when Abraham Lincoln was assassinated in April 1865.
  4. Chester Arthur, when James Garfield finally succumbed to his assassin’s bullet (and his doctors’ ministrations) in September 1881.

26rooseveltAdditionally, four other Vice Presidents succeeded to the Presidency, and then were later elected to their own terms as President:

  1. Theodore Roosevelt, who became the youngest President in history (aged 42) when William McKinley was assassinated in September 1901. TR then won the election of 1904.
  2. Calvin Coolidge, when Warren Harding died in 1923 (and Coolidge’s father administered the oath of office). Coolidge won his own term in 1924.
  3. Harry Truman, when Franklin Roosevelt died three months into his fourth term, in April 1945. Truman won the election of 1948, and was the last President eligible to run for a third term (though he chose not to).
  4. Lyndon Johnson, when John Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. Johnson was elected in 1964, and eligible to run in 1968 (he’d served less than half of Kennedy’s term), but opted not to.

Gerald Ford is the odd man out: the only Vice President to succeed to the Presidency when his predecessor—Richard Nixon—resigned in August 1974. Ford lost the election of 1976 to Jimmy Carter.

02adamsFinally, there are the Vice Presidents who were simply later elected President:

  1. John Adams, the first Vice President, who won the election of 1796 to become the second President.
  2. Thomas Jefferson, Adams’ Vice President, who then ran against Adams in 1800 and defeated him.
  3. Martin Van Buren, who was Andrew Jackson’s second Vice President, and then elected President himself in 1836.
  4. George H.W. Bush, the first sitting Vice President to be elected President in a century and a half, when he won the election of 1988 to succeed Ronald Reagan.

37nixonAnd, until recently, the only oddball on this list was Richard Nixon, who was Dwight Eisenhower’s Vice President from 1953 to 1961, lost the election of 1960 to John Kennedy, and then won the Presidential election of 1968.

Nixon had been the only former Vice President to be elected President, until just recently, when Joe Biden—Barack Obama’s Vice President from 2009 to 2017—won the election of 2020.

47biden
Joe Biden

So, that’s 15 Vice Presidents who also served as President. 15 of 49. The Vice Presidency is not nearly the Presidential stepping stone one might think. Actually, the most popular job for future Presidents is (no surprise) lawyer: 23 of the 45 Presidents have been lawyers. 21 were members of state legislatures, 19 were governors, 18 served in the House of Representatives, and 17 served in the Senate.